Invested Central Market Minute – February 29, 2012
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Even though prices at the pump are at levels not seen for a few years, stocks continue to rise. That might seem a bit odd to someone, but it got me thinking about a few reasons why this might be happening.
First, let’s not forget there are a number of oil companies, like Exxon Mobil and Chevron, for example, that have large market values who are benefiting from the spike in oil prices. This in turn has helped take the DOW and S&P 500 higher.
Next, the increase in oil prices is an indication that world demand is picking up, leading investors to believe that the economic engine is heating up, leading to higher stock prices.
In addition, our society has now gotten to the point of acceptance; that is, no one who has paid any attention the past few years thinks in terms of $2 gas prices any more; that’s ancient history. Instead, $3-4 is more the norm. And even though seeing prices north of $4 in certain areas brings up memories of the fairly recent past that may be unpleasant, it’s nothing new; we’ve been there, done that. The shock value just isn’t as great.
Let’s also remember that more people are working now than when gas prices were at their most lofty levels. Thus, the ability of a larger number of consumers to handle the recent rise in prices.
Obviously, there could be a tipping point where the cost of a gallon of gas begins to have a major impact on the overall economy. But, we’re not there yet.
In a recent blog I made the case that Starbucks‘ lofty stock price is an indication that the economy is improving. I’ll make the case here that as long as consumers continue to spend their hard earned dollars on discretionary items like fancy coffee while gasoline is at such lofty levels, it is a sign that our society has accepted the reality of higher gas prices.
Of course there could also be a tipping point. $5 per gallon? $6 per gallon? Higher? No one really has the answer to that question. But, with the cost of money so cheap, portfolios of investors in much better shape, more people working, housing inventory shrinking, we might be able to absorb higher prices at the pump than one might think. In any event, if gasoline prices get to unacceptably high levels, we’re likely to see oil producers adjust their prices or run the risk of a weakening economy that benefits no one.
Consider this. Oil prices peaked in July 2008 near $147 per gallon. At that time, the S&P was close to 1250. The severe market decline began two months later. The S&P today is near 1370, so 120 points higher than July 2008, while a barrel of oil is near $110, or $37 lower. Thus, if oil were to get back to the $147 level, we would then see if there was any negative impact on the S&P. If the impact was minimal, that would tell me that consumer acceptance is greater than most might think, with investors being more focused on the bottom line of corporate America rather than rising oil prices.
A week later: test in progress. It rarely happens in one attempt. Traders are true fighters, market is a fighting ground.
E – support level from the daily chart
F – some action outside of Bollinger Band! (a possible next step would be pull into the BB and move up or a second leg down)
G – drop below the support from the daily chart and finding support in the Bollinger Band – that’s a promise of a bounce to test the resistance (previous support level from daily chart – high probability)
H – test day one! And stuck at the upper BB
I am adding my favorite hourly indicators MACD(12,26,9) and CCI(20).
I – MACD reached extreme lows forming “double bottom”. This is high probability for a bounce (which happened)
J – CCI was sloping down while
K – MACD was sloping up during the same time – this is no signal at all
Now the BB is getting narrower. After some excitement and extremes of MACD it’s time to rest and consolidate.
We are still above the support from the daily chart – E line, in a range $53 – $54.5. A strong move outside that range should clarify the next target.
The daily chart is giving a picture of fighting still below SMA(200).
Why did I choose to care about XME? I think that the market can’t continue strong without XME getting strong. I am trading probabilities….
Eva

RGLD is a $4.29 billion basic materials company that engages in the acquisition and management of precious metal royalties. It owns royalty interests in various producing, development, evaluation, and exploration stage projects that explore for gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc metals. RGLD remains in a very bullish continuation pattern – the ascending triangle. Currently, it’s trading closer to the bottom of the triangle and in an area where it can be accumulated with a solid reward to risk scenario in play. We’d consider entering at the current price and again at $69.00 with a closing stop beneath $67.50. Our target would be $82.50 initially, but a close above $82.50 on heavy volume would measure to $105.00 in time.
You should consider these educational charts and analysis for possible short-term trades only. We are not registered investment advisors and the following trade setups should not be viewed as investment advice. Accordingly, please check with your financial advisor before deciding to buy or sell any of these investment securities. Read our full Disclaimer below.
Because we do not recommend holding a stock into its earnings report, please check all earnings dates on Charts of the Day stocks before making a decision on whether to consider a trade.
It’s my favorite path – the Bollinger Bands. It is quite accurate in catching reversals assuming the market is orderly (no shocks).
It’s like driving on a highway: right lane, passing lane, turn… When market is relatively quiet, the path is not chaotic and you can stay in it. Real action starts when unexpected happens! The less expected the more fun.
Is there a way to prepare as a trader for “unexpected”? I think there is, however limited. Hikers that undertake long trips in wilderness train in reading maps, natural markers, sky, weather etc. Even when they wander off a path they would be prepared to look for an alternate route.
What is there for traders? Charts, emotional level at CNBC and alike, international news, Fed talk and more – observation of the interdependencies between the market and those, with time, helps with faster decision making while trading.
This is where I find the Bollinger Bands helping define the path while I still keep my eyes open on emotions, news etc.
Let’s look at this hourly chart:
A, B, C, D – no real action – just slow movement, no trade for me
E – support level from the daily chart
F – some action outside of Bollinger Band! (a possible next step would be pull into the BB and move up or a second leg down)
G – drop below the support from the daily chart and finding support in the Bollinger Band – that’s a promise of a bounce to test the resistance (previous support level from daily chart – high probability)
H – the test! And stuck at the upper BB
How to know the entry/exit? Additional indicators may help.
You may ask what chart is that. That was XME last 10 days hourly chart
In my next blog I will add one more indicator and revisit the “walk”.
Eva

ABMD is an $825.7 million healthcare company that provides medical devices in circulatory support and continuum of care in heart recovery to acute heart failure patients. ABMD has excellent volume trends and recently needed some relief from very overbought levels. There was also a long-term negative divergence that had printed and that led to a subsequent 50 day SMA test and a MACD “reset” at the centerline. The selling over the past four or five sessions helped to relieve the overbought issue and now sets up ABMD to be in a much more favorable reward to risk trade. We like entry at the current price and again at $21.15. We’d keep a tight closing stop beneath $20.98 and our initial target would be $24.18.
You should consider these educational charts and analysis for possible short-term trades only. We are not registered investment advisors and the following trade setups should not be viewed as investment advice. Accordingly, please check with your financial advisor before deciding to buy or sell any of these investment securities. Read our full Disclaimer below.
Because we do not recommend holding a stock into its earnings report, please check all earnings dates on Charts of the Day stocks before making a decision on whether to consider a trade.