The weekly chart of UUP shows a lot of struggle since September 2008.
After it peaked in September 2008, dollar initiated the long-term downtrend channel which still proves to be intact. The most recent rejection happened in July 2012. I noticed a shorter term up trending channel that started in May this year – but look what happened! UUP could not continue trading within it – it was pulled back into the longer term down trending channel.
What is the story within the daily chart of UUP? It doesn’t look good either. UUP failed the test of resistance at SMA(200) on November 16th 2012. It is currently trading toward the support at $21.6. Look at SMA(50) below SMA(200), SMA(20) turning lower, and MACD going below the zero line.
There is a very solid resistance for UUP between $22 – $23.20
I will be watching for signs of breaking resistance of the long-term falling channel – It may be “watching the grass grow” exercise…