Anatomy of a Trade: Titan Machinery Inc

Posted on May 7, 2012 by Tom Bowley

Date Provided to Members: April 17 2012

Service: Chart of the Day

Entry: $32.37 (average)

Target Price: $36.25

Profit: $3.88 or 11.99%

Days Held: 14

Comments: Here is what we had to say on Wednesday, April 18th, as delivered in our Chart of the Day that we provided to our members::

“TITN is a $688 million specialty retailer that owns and operates a network of full service agricultural and construction equipment stores in the United States and Europe. Technically, TITN made a beautiful breakout a little more than a week ago, clearing the April 2011 high. The selling the past few days was warranted given the very overbought conditions. There is solid price support in the $32.00 area, which is where we expect the buying to resume. Therefore, we like entry at the current price and again at $32.00 with a closing stop at $31.75. Consider $36.25 to be a short-term target.”

Update: TITN performed beautifully. After pulling back to test $32.00 price support – where we were able to enter at both $32.75 and $32.00 – TITN recovered very quickly and tested its previous high just above $36.00. Our target was $36.25, which was hit intraday on May 1, 2012. TITN remains quite strong, but is current trading within a $31.98-$36.25 range. Until it breaks out, consider trading the range.

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Anatomy of a Trade: Amarin Corp PLC

Posted on April 29, 2012 by Tom Bowley

Date Provided to Members: April 15 2012

Service: marketJOURNAL

Entry: $9.55 (average)

Target Price: $12.15

Gain: $2.60 or 27.23%

Days Held: 11

Comments: Here is what we had to say on Sunday, April 15th, as delivered in our marketJOURNAL that we provided to our Diamond members::

“AMRN broke out in mid-March above 9.35 resistance. It has slowly drifted back to that level on much lighter volume. We like entry at the current price and again at 9.40, with a closing stop beneath 9.25. Our target would be 12.15. Should support in the 9.25-9.35 area be lost, there are not many reasons for techical buyers to buy until the trendline support is reached.”

Update: AMRN pulled back, touching both entry points – $9.69 and $9.40 – and holding above $9.25 closing support before turning higher. On Friday, it moved above our $12.15 target, triggering our sell and a 27% profit in just two weeks. Technically, it’s now at key short-term resistance, though a breakout above $12.25 on heavy volume would be bullish. There is now a cup in play with a potential handle down to the rising 20 day EMA an opportunity for re-entry.

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Anatomy of a Trade: Hot Topic, Inc

Posted on April 22, 2012 by Tom Bowley

Date Provided to Members: March 18, 2012

Service: marketJOURNAL

Entry: $9.68

Target Price: $10.30

Gain: $0.62 or 6.40%

Days Held: 2

Comments: Here is what we had to say on Sunday, March 18th, as delivered in our marketJOURNAL that we provided to our Diamond members::

“MACD looks very solid here, as do recent volume trends. We like entry at the current price and again at 9.49, with a closing stop beneath the rising 20 day EMA, currently at 9.27. Our target would be the 10.30-10.40 area.”

Update: HOTT pulled back to $9.50, missing by one penny triggering the second entry at $9.49. However, HOTT never was close to being stopped out, then rallied quickly to our expected $10.30 level just two days later. That resulted in a 6.40% gain in just two trading days! HOTT later moved to a fresh late March high, but did so with a big red flag – a long-term negative divergence in play. It has since been struggling, although a reset of the MACD at the centerline and a 50 day SMA test could produce the next buying opportunity on this stock technically.

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Anatomy of a Trade: Samson Oil & Gas Ltd

Posted on April 17, 2012 by Tom Bowley

Date Provided to Members: April 1, 2012

Service: marketJOURNAL

Entry: $2.47

Stop Price: $2.37

Loss: $0.14, or 4.05%

Days Held: 2

Comments: Here is what we had to say on Sunday, April 1st, as delivered in our marketJOURNAL that we provided to our Diamond members around noon:

“SSN broke out above prior resistance on very heavy volume and has since slowly worked its way back to price, trendline and gap support. Given the RSI now in the 40s and SSN trading with so much support near current price, now seems like a good opportunity for entry. We like entry at the current price with a closing stop beneath 2.38. Our target would be 3.05. If you prefer giving this one a bit more room to the downside, 2.25 would be the next support area to watch.”

Update: We’ve said many times in the past that the best trades sometimes are losses. Why? Because the discipline that you instill by swallowing your pride and taking a small loss many times will save you from having to figure out how to climb out of a deep hole by hanging onto a stock that is technically broken. SSN failed us. It was a bad call. On April 4th, SSN closed at $2.37, a penny below our closing stop level – and on the heaviest volume it had seen in over two weeks. Following a disciplined stop would have resulted in roughly a 4% loss. Just four days later, however, if SSN was not sold, it traded as low as $1.87. At that level, a 4% loss had ballooned into a 24.3% loss. Then panic sets in and rational trades are no longer possible. ALWAYS remember to keep your stops in play!

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Invested Central Chart of the Day: DPZ

Posted on April 1, 2012 by Tom Bowley

DPZ is a $2.1 billion consumer discretionary company that operates as a pizza delivery company in the United States and internationally. DPZ printed a very bullish maribozu candle in late February as part of the continuation gap. Volume was extremely heavy and indicative of accumulation. Since that time, however, DPZ has pulled back, testing its 50 day SMA and the upper end of gap support simultaneously. DPZ has generally been a buy throughout its uptrend whenever RSI has approached 40 with stochastics beneath 20. That’s where those two reside right now. We like entry at the current price and again at $35.25 with a closing stop beneath $34.75. Our target would be the recent closing just shy of $42.00.

You should consider these educational charts and analysis for possible short-term trades only. We are not registered investment advisors and the following trade setups should not be viewed as investment advice. Accordingly, please check with your financial advisor before deciding to buy or sell any of these investment securities. Read our full Disclaimer below.

Because we do not recommend holding a stock into its earnings report, please check all earnings dates on Charts of the Day stocks before making a decision on whether to consider a trade.

Invested Central Chart of the Day: PNK

Posted on March 15, 2012 by Tom Bowley

PNK is a $669.3 million consumer discretionary company that owns, develops, and operates casinos, and related hospitality and entertainment facilities in the United States. PNK was mired in a nasty downtrend for many months before recently breaking out of a symmetrical triangle on expanding volume. It has since pulled back and on Wednesday we saw PNK approach gap support and test the uptrend line. We like entry from the current price down to gap support at $10.25. Our target would be the measurement on the triangle breakout, which is in the $14.50-$15.00 range. Consider keeping a closing stop beneath $10.00.

Because we do not recommend holding a stock into its earnings report, please check all earnings dates on Charts of the Day stocks before making a decision on whether to consider a trade.

Invested Central Chart of the Day: AMAT

Posted on March 13, 2012 by Tom Bowley

AMAT is a $16.0 billion technology company that provides manufacturing equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor, flat panel display, solar photovoltaic (PV), and related industries worldwide. Technically, AMAT had a nice run through January and the first half of February, following a strong semiconductor industry. But AMAT was overbought and needed some relief and it’s seen it as it fell from nearly $14.00 per share to just under $12.00 a few trading sessions ago. It’s now riding along the 50 day SMA after a MACD reset at that level. We like entry at the current price and again at $12.00. Consider a closing stop beneath $11.75 with a target of $13.86 to retest that mid-February high.

Because we do not recommend holding a stock into its earnings report, please check all earnings dates on Charts of the Day stocks before making a decision on whether to consider a trade.

Invested Central Chart of the Day: RWT

Posted on March 12, 2012 by Tom Bowley

RWT is a $908.8 million financial company (REIT) that engages in investing, financing, and managing real estate assets. RWT owns investments that include residential and commercial real estate loans and securities backed by residential and commercial loans, including senior and subordinate securities. Technically, RWT appears to be printing a bottoming head & shoulders formation with the right shoulder sitting on the 50 day SMA. RWT started to make a move on Friday on heavy volume. Even though it backed off quite a bit from intraday levels, it demonstrated that buyers appear willing to accumulate at this level. Therefore, we like entry at the current price and again at $11.35. We’d keep a tight closing stop beneath $11.25 in the event RWT closes below its left shoulder support. Ultimately, if we get a high volume breakout above the neckline, our target would measure to the $14.75-$15.00 area. For income investors, the 8.70% current dividend yield is a bonus.

Because we do not recommend holding a stock into its earnings report, please check all earnings dates on Charts of the Day stocks before making a decision on whether to consider a trade.

Invested Central Chart of the Day: CALX

Posted on March 6, 2012 by Tom Bowley

CALX is a $457.0 million technology company that provides broadband communications access systems and software for fiber and copper-based network architectures that enable communications service providers (CSPs) to connect to their residential and business subscribers. Volume trends on CALX have been exceptional over the past several months. The breakout that occurred in early February is being retested as the overbought RSI and stochastics levels have fallen back into a more acceptable area for entry. We like entry at the current price and again at $9.00 with a closing stop beneath the rising 50 day SMA, which currently resides at $8.53. Our target is $12.00, which represents nearly a 4 to 1 reward to risk ratio. That’s a solid ratio in just about any market.

Because we do not recommend holding a stock into its earnings report, please check all earnings dates on Charts of the Day stocks before making a decision on whether to consider a trade.

Anatomy of a Trade: ATP Oil & Gas Corp

Posted on March 4, 2012 by Tom Bowley

Date Provided to Members: February 28, 2012

Service: Market Chatter

Entry: $7.90

Intraday High Price: $9.50

Potential Profit (Loss): $1.60 or 20.25%

Days Held: 3

Comments: Here is what we had to say on Tuesday, February 28th, as delivered in our Market Chatter that we provided to our Gold and Diamond members around noon EST:

“ATPG – had a very nice, heavy volume breakout on Monday and is pulling back a little today. Entry in the 7.90-8.00 range would be ideal, but you could consider an initial position here. There is a very decent chance that the downtrend has ended and ATPG has begun a series of higher highs and higher lows. It’s a bit of an aggressive trade, but one that looks good.”

Update: After providing ATPG to our members in the Market Chatter on Tuesday, ATPG literally dipped just beneath $7.90 two hours later to trigger entry. By Friday’s intraday high of $9.50, ATPG had soared $1.60, or 20.25% in just three trading days.

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Invested Central

Stock Market Analysis, Guidance and Education

Category Archives: Tom Bowley

Anatomy of a Trade: Titan Machinery Inc

Anatomy of a Trade: Amarin Corp PLC

Anatomy of a Trade: Hot Topic, Inc

Anatomy of a Trade: Samson Oil & Gas Ltd

Invested Central Chart of the Day: DPZ

Invested Central Chart of the Day: PNK

Invested Central Chart of the Day: AMAT

Invested Central Chart of the Day: RWT

Invested Central Chart of the Day: CALX

Anatomy of a Trade: ATP Oil & Gas Corp