Yesterday's pounding in the market was a stark reminder that when everything is said and done, the recovery of the US economy will only occur when there is a marked shift in the employment picture. The weekly jobless claims released on Thursday showed a pick up in unemployment claims, and spooked investors ahead of the big Monthly Employment Report due out Friday morning.
For quite some time, there's been talk of a "jobless recovery". Guess what? Ain't gonna happen. When you have more than 10% of the population sitting on the sidelines barely scrapping by, that's not exactly what I call a recovery waiting to happen. In fact, it casts a pall over the entire economy, because if one out of ten people are unable to work, it has a domino effect on everyone around them.
President Obama focused heavily on job creation during his State of the Union address. And, I was encouraged by his $5000 tax incentive for small businesses to help create some jobs. But, it's still not the answer, because if I'm a small business (like I am) and it's going to cost me 10-20 times the amount of the tax incentive to bring someone on board, I'm appreciative of the additional $5k, but I still have to pay the rest out of my pocket, and will be reluctant to do so unless I feel adding someone to the payroll is going to result in a bump to my bottom line.
Obama also talked about pumping some dollars into community banks so they can lend those dollars to small businesses, but I'm telling you right now, that ain't gonna happen either! Right now, banks are petrified at giving loans to anyone, and the individuals and businesses who could use the money are probably struggling as it is, so any dollars lent are going to be seen as "at risk".
The only way to really have a meaningful impact is for the government to guarantee these loans, which takes the onus off the banks, while putting dollars into the pockets of those individuals and businesses who have the power to start hiring right away. If I'm able to borrow $100,000 from the bank, knowing that I can then hire someone who can help jump start my business, PLUS I receive a tax credit, now we have something to talk about. And, since the government went all in when creating TARP for the biggest financial institutions, why not try something more radical by bailing out the largest employment sector in the economy?