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Thursday, Aug 26, 2010 Permalink
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1 in 10 not enough
By John S. Hopkins, Jr.

The most recent housing statistics show that 1 in 10 homeowners in the US have missed mortgage payments and run the risk of going into foreclosure. To get some perspective on this staggering number, imagine being at a football stadium that holds 50,000 people, knowing that 5,000 people there are in danger of losing their home to foreclosure.

That type of visual should be enough to convince just about everyone that we've got an epidemic, one that has crippled our economy. Yet the efforts to resolve have really been weak, not the type of all out effort that was taken to make sure the banks didn't go under a few years back.

Why is it that there is so much time, attention and resources devoted to the same financial institutions that helped to get us into the current mess in the first place and so little to the average person on the street?  Certainly, the big banks have the financial resources (the ones backed by taxpayers) to hire top lobbyists and it's well known that there's a true brotherhood between Wall Street, bankers and the legislators who see to it that the banks get special treatment.

That means that the rest of us have to rely on those same legislators that we voted in to represent us, and right now, they aren't doing a very good job. Doesn't matter if they are Democrat, Republican, Independent, Tea Party, we're not getting the same treatment as the banks. And, it's a joke to think that a shift in the number of House or Senate seats is going to do anything at all to shift the emphasis on you and me; it's all a mirage.

Maybe it's going to take 1 in 2 people ready to go under before we see something meaningful happen. That might do it, because at that point, it would probably include plenty of our representatives as well.

 

 

 
Tuesday, Aug 24, 2010 Permalink
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Water cooler talk...again
By John S. Hopkins, Jr.

I remember when the S&P hit 666 in March, 2009, and how everyone was 100% convinced the market was going to fall further. I remember Jim Cramer saying if you need your money anytime over the next five years to just get out of the market. In other words, no one wanted to touch a stock ever again.

Fast forward 13 months from that bottoming day, and the S&P hit 1220 in April, 2010, so pretty much a double. So, anyone who did nothing but pick up the doom and gloom vibes missed a very nice move to the upside.

Now, today, I was reading an article about the housing market, and it was laced with gloom and doom and how the real estate may never recover, homeowners shouldn't expect any appreciation for umpteen years, pretty much the worst case scenario. THIS is what gets my attention, because when no one wants to touch real estate again (or stocks in March, 2009) that's probably indicating a bottom is closer than we realize.

Consider this. Mortgage interest rates are at an all time low, and falling. Also, while banks have tightened their lending standards, as more people pay down outstanding debt, the banks will likely lighten up on their standards. We're not likely to get the type of "No Doc" loans that were pervasive several years ago, but the banks will find their yields getting squeezed as treasury yields continue to fall, and will pretty much be forced to find places to put their deposits to work.

There's still plenty of work to be done in the real estate sector, too many foreclosures, too many short sales, too much inventory, to name a few. Still, when we start getting the kind of "water cooler" talk we are getting today, you can rest assured we're closer to the bottom than we think. Not any major prediction here, but watch for savvy real estate investors to start making their move sometime soon; if they already haven't.

 
Monday, Aug 23, 2010 Permalink
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A tale of one city
By John S. Hopkins, Jr.

I found myself back in Detroit last week, having a few good reasons to visit, including family and a Detroit phenomena, the Woodward Dream Cruise.

Family alone is a good enough reason to go back to the town where I grew up, but the bonus was the Dream Cruise, a sea of vintage cars from all eras, 40,000 strong, with a million spectators playing witness to this amazing annual event.

Actually, the idea originated back in 1995, when Nelson House had an idea to support a charity, and floated the notion of reliving a nostalgic period of the past, in the 1950's and 1960's, where teens and others showed off their cars by cruising up and down America's first highway, Woodward Avenue. House (who passed away this year) expected several thousand participants, but instead, 250,000 showed up, and it has been growing every since.

This year took on special importance, seen in Detroit as a resurgence of the bludgeoned auto industry, with both GM and Chrysler coming out of bankruptcy, and Ford showing tremendous market strength. So, right on cue, thousands of old cars showed up, with attendance said to be upwards of a million strong, and quite a site it was.

While I was in Detroit, I visited the area I grew up in on the east side, and it wasn't a pretty site. What had once been a vibrant and very middle class neighborhood is now a carbon copy of the wreckage that blankets the city. Burnt down and boarded up houses and storefronts spanning too many blocks to count, and a snapshot of everything that is wrong about our housing policy, and specifically, the failure to address the housing and foreclosure epidemic that has spread throughout the country. It's disgraceful that so many people have to live in such wretched conditions and that we have to watch once proud cities like Detroit deteriorate before our eyes.

So, one trip, but two different pictures. One of a celebration of a piece of Detroit history, with hopes for reviving the storied auto industry, the other an indictment on the country for letting a major city crumble before our collective eyes. I haven't figured out the solution yet, but I know that my home town is in desperate need of our help, and turning a blind eye is no longer an option.